Forward to: Credit Team

Credit & Distressed Debt
Analysis Workflows

Ten agent workflows for Citadel's credit team — early warning systems for distressed companies using web presence decay signals, credit counterparty digital due diligence, sector-wide credit risk heat mapping, covenant compliance monitoring, recovery rate prediction, credit contagion networking, leveraged loan surveillance, bankruptcy prediction, credit rating migration detection, and restructuring opportunity scanning — detecting financial distress from domain intelligence before it shows up in financial statements.

1Distressed Company Early Warning System

AI agent monitors domain intelligence for patterns that historically precede corporate distress — leadership departures, careers page collapse, support page removal, legal page changes, and infrastructure degradation. These digital signals often appear 3-6 months before credit rating downgrades.

1
Define Distress Signal Framework
DISTRESS SIGNAL FRAMEWORK — 20 PAGE TYPE INDICATORS ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CRITICAL DISTRESS SIGNALS (Highest predictive value): /careers — Job postings removed or drastically reduced Weight: 5x /leadership — C-suite departures without replacements Weight: 5x /support — Support page removed (customer service shut down) Weight: 4x /legal — Terms changed to add liability disclaimers Weight: 4x /contact — Phone numbers removed, offices closed Weight: 3x SECONDARY DISTRESS SIGNALS: /pricing — Pricing page removed (product wind-down) Weight: 3x /products — Product pages removed or reduced Weight: 3x /partners — Partnership pages shrinking Weight: 2x /investors — IR page goes silent or adds risk language Weight: 2x CrUX — Website performance degradation Weight: 2x PageRank — Authority score declining rapidly Weight: 2x CONFIRMATION SIGNALS: /blog — Content publishing stops (operational neglect) Weight: 1x /events — All events cancelled or page removed Weight: 1x /security — Security certs expired or removed Weight: 1x /compliance — Regulatory page removed Weight: 1x /sustainability — ESG page removed (cost-cutting) Weight: 1x DISTRESS SCORE: Sum of (signal × weight) = 0-100 scale THRESHOLD: Score > 40 = Elevated Risk | > 60 = Distressed | > 80 = Critical
2
Scan Credit Universe for Distress Patterns
/careers /leadership /support /legal /contact /pricing /products /investors CrUX Score PageRank
DISTRESS DETECTION SCAN — 2,847 CREDIT UNIVERSE NAMES ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CRITICAL DISTRESS — Score > 80 (3 companies): medtech-solutions-inc.com — Distress Score: 87/100 Dec 2025: /careers: 89 roles → 12 roles (−87%) Jan 2026: /leadership: CFO departed, CRO departed (no replacements) Jan 2026: /support: Support page REMOVED entirely Feb 2026: /contact: Reduced from 4 offices to 1 Feb 2026: /investors: Added "going concern" language to disclaimers Feb 2026: CrUX: 85 → 47 (infrastructure neglected) Feb 2026: /pricing: Removed 3 of 5 product tiers PATTERN MATCH: 94% similarity to WeWork pre-bankruptcy digital pattern retail-brands-global.com — Distress Score: 82/100 Nov 2025: /careers: Hiring freeze (89 → 0 postings) Dec 2025: /leadership: CMO and CTO departed in same week Jan 2026: /legal: Added "material adverse change" language Jan 2026: /partners: Removed 8 retail partners from page Feb 2026: /events: All upcoming events cancelled Feb 2026: /sustainability: ESG page removed (cost-cutting indicator) PATTERN MATCH: 89% similarity to Bed Bath & Beyond pre-bankruptcy ELEVATED RISK — Score 40-60 (12 companies): rapid-logistics.com Score: 58 — /careers -45%, CTO departure global-media-corp.com Score: 54 — /support reduced, CrUX dropping cleantech-ventures.com Score: 52 — /pricing removed, /investors silent [9 more companies with detailed signals...]
3
Generate Distress Timeline & Trading Signal
Domain Signal
medtech-solutions-inc.com — Distress score 87 with accelerating deterioration. 7 of 20 page types showing negative changes in 60 days. Pattern matches historical pre-bankruptcy companies with 94% similarity. Current credit spread: 450bps — likely to widen significantly.
SHORT CREDIT — Distress probability >80%
Company Signal
MedTech Solutions Inc — Also operates medtech-eu.com (similarly deteriorating) and medtech-asia.com (unchanged — potential asset sale candidate). Company-wide distress is uniform except Asia subsidiary, suggesting possible divestiture to raise cash.
COMPANY-WIDE DISTRESS — Asia unit may be sold

EARLY WARNING LEAD TIME

HISTORICAL VALIDATION: Domain intelligence distress signals detected: - Avg 97 days before credit rating downgrade - Avg 143 days before bankruptcy filing - Avg 67 days before credit spread widening > 200bps CASE STUDIES: SVB (2023): /careers dropped 67% four months before failure WeWork (2023): /support removed 3 months before Chapter 11 Bed Bath (2023): /partners page emptied 4 months before liquidation FTX (2022): /leadership went anonymous 6 weeks before collapse

2Credit Counterparty Digital Due Diligence

When evaluating a credit investment (bond, loan, or private credit), the AI agent performs comprehensive digital due diligence on the issuer using all 20 page types to assess operational health beyond what financial statements reveal.

1
Perform Full 20-Page-Type Assessment
CREDIT DUE DILIGENCE — TARGET: Nordic Manufacturing Group ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DOMAIN: nordic-manufacturing.se ISSUE: €200M 5-year bond @ 4.25% (evaluating for purchase) 20-PAGE-TYPE ASSESSMENT: /about — Founded 1987, 2,300 employees, 4 factories /products — 6 product lines, 3 added in last 18 months /pricing — Enterprise pricing (healthy margin indicator) /leadership — 9 C-suite, stable (avg tenure 4.2 years) /careers — 67 open roles (healthy hiring) /investors — Full IR with quarterly reports, debt covenant status /legal — Clean terms, GDPR compliant, no unusual disclaimers /compliance — ISO 14001, ISO 9001, EU compliance certifications /sustainability — Detailed ESG report, carbon reduction targets /security — ISO 27001, SOC 2 certified /partners — 34 supply chain partners listed, diversified /support — Full customer support infrastructure /contact — 4 offices, all with verified phone/address /blog — Active (3 posts/week, consistent) /press — Regular press releases (1-2/month) /docs — Technical documentation for products /api — No API (not a platform business — acceptable) /events — Attending 4 industry conferences in Q1 /case-studies — 12 customer case studies published /login — Customer portal active TRANSPARENCY SCORE: 19/20 — Excellent
2
Analyze Time-Series for Trend Confirmation
12-MONTH STABILITY ASSESSMENT
Q1 2025 18/20 pages present. /sustainability added (ESG compliance). /careers: 45 roles. PageRank: 62.
Q2 2025 18/20 pages. /careers: 52 roles (+15%). /products: Added 1 new product line. CrUX: 88 (stable).
Q3 2025 19/20 pages. /case-studies added (12 studies). /careers: 58 roles (+12%). /partners: +6 new partners. Steady growth.
Q4 2025 19/20 pages. /careers: 63 roles (+9%). /events: 3 conferences. /press: New factory announcement. PageRank: 68 (+6). Accelerating.
Q1 2026 19/20 pages. /careers: 67 roles (+6%). All indicators stable or improving. Consistent 12-month positive trajectory.
3
Credit Decision Support Report

CREDIT DUE DILIGENCE — RECOMMENDATION

ISSUER: Nordic Manufacturing Group ISSUE: €200M 5-year @ 4.25% ══════════════════════════════════════════ DIGITAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT: Transparency Score: 19/20 (Excellent) Stability Score: 96/100 (12-month consistent improvement) Distress Score: 3/100 (No warning signals) Hiring Trajectory: +49% over 12 months (growth confirmed) Infrastructure: CrUX 88 (healthy), PageRank 68 (growing) RECOMMENDATION: BUY at 4.25% Digital signals confirm financial health reported in statements. No hidden operational deterioration detected across 20 page types. Supply chain diversified (34 partners across 8 countries). Leadership stable (avg 4.2yr tenure, no departures in 12 months). MONITORING PLAN: Set automated weekly scans for distress signal changes. Alert thresholds: /careers < 40 roles, any /leadership departures, /compliance changes, CrUX below 70, PageRank below 60.

3Sector Credit Risk Heat Map

AI agent aggregates distress scores across an entire credit sector to identify systemic risk concentrations and generate sector-level credit signals.

1
Scan Sector & Score All Issuers
SECTOR CREDIT HEAT MAP — US RETAIL (347 issuers) ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DISTRESS SCORE DISTRIBUTION: Score 0-20 (Healthy): 189 issuers (54.5%) ■■■■■■■■■■■ Score 21-40 (Watch): 89 issuers (25.6%) ■■■■■ Score 41-60 (Elevated): 42 issuers (12.1%) ■■■ Score 61-80 (Distressed): 19 issuers (5.5%) ■■ Score 81-100 (Critical): 8 issuers (2.3%) SECTOR HEALTH INDICATORS: Avg /careers change QoQ: -12% (declining sector employment) % with /sustainability: 34% (below cross-sector avg of 52%) % with /investors IR: 67% (healthy for listed issuers) Avg transparency score: 14.2/20 (below cross-sector avg of 15.8) Avg CrUX performance: 79 (below cross-sector avg of 84) SECTOR TREND: Deteriorating — distress scores up 18% QoQ
2
Generate Sector Credit Trading Signal
Sector Signal
US Retail Credit — 27 issuers (7.8%) in distressed or critical territory, up from 18 (5.2%) last quarter. Aggregate /careers declining -12% QoQ (employment contraction). 8 issuers removed /events pages (discretionary spend cuts). Sector CrUX declining (infrastructure underinvestment).
UNDERWEIGHT RETAIL CREDIT — Spreads likely to widen
Comparison
US Technology Credit — Only 3 issuers (1.1%) in distressed territory. /careers growing +8% QoQ. Avg transparency 17.8/20. CrUX 91. Sector health score: 82/100 vs Retail 54/100. Credit spread differential justified by domain intelligence.
OVERWEIGHT TECH CREDIT — Fundamentals confirmed by digital health

4Covenant Compliance Monitor

AI agent continuously tracks digital health indicators that correlate with financial covenant breaches — hiring freezes, infrastructure cutbacks, revenue concentration shifts, and operational downsizing signals — generating early alerts before quarterly reporting reveals violations.

1
Define Covenant Breach Indicator Matrix
COVENANT COMPLIANCE MONITOR — DIGITAL PROXY FRAMEWORK ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ LEVERAGE RATIO COVENANT PROXIES: /careers — Hiring freeze or mass layoff signal Breach Correlation: 0.82 /products — Product line reduction (revenue decline proxy) Breach Correlation: 0.78 /pricing — Aggressive discounting or tier collapse Breach Correlation: 0.71 /partners — Partner ecosystem shrinkage Breach Correlation: 0.67 INTEREST COVERAGE COVENANT PROXIES: /investors — IR page adds covenant waiver language Breach Correlation: 0.91 /legal — New lender-consent disclaimers appear Breach Correlation: 0.88 CrUX — Infrastructure cost-cutting (performance drop) Breach Correlation: 0.65 PageRank — Authority decline (market position erosion) Breach Correlation: 0.62 CAPEX / ASSET SALE COVENANT PROXIES: /contact — Office closures (asset dispositions) Breach Correlation: 0.85 /about — Subsidiary removal (divestiture signal) Breach Correlation: 0.79 /events — Conference withdrawal (discretionary cuts) Breach Correlation: 0.59 /sustainability — ESG page removal (non-core cuts) Breach Correlation: 0.54 MONITORING: Daily scans across 100M+ domain database ALERT THRESHOLD: ≥3 proxy triggers within 30 days = Covenant Watch
2
Scan Leveraged Loan Portfolio for Covenant Stress
/careers /investors /legal /contact /products /pricing /about CrUX Score PageRank
COVENANT STRESS SCAN — 412 LEVERAGED LOAN POSITIONS ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ IMMINENT BREACH RISK — 5+ proxy triggers (4 issuers): precisionhealth-corp.com — Covenant Stress Score: 92/100 Loan: $340M TLB @ L+425 | Leverage Covenant: 5.5x (last reported: 5.1x) Nov 2025: /careers: 215 roles → 34 roles (−84%) — mass layoff confirmed Dec 2025: /investors: Added "covenant waiver request" language to IR page Jan 2026: /contact: Closed 3 of 5 regional offices Jan 2026: /products: Removed 2 of 6 product lines Feb 2026: /legal: Added "lender forbearance" disclaimer Feb 2026: /pricing: Enterprise tier eliminated, single pricing only PREDICTION: Leverage covenant breach in Q1 2026 filing (~6.3x est.) continental-logistics-group.com — Covenant Stress Score: 85/100 Loan: $275M TLB @ L+375 | Interest Coverage Covenant: 2.0x Dec 2025: /careers: Hiring frozen across all divisions Jan 2026: /about: Removed 2 subsidiary pages (divestiture signal) Jan 2026: CrUX: 82 → 58 (severe infrastructure degradation) Feb 2026: /investors: Q4 report delayed (10-K late filing) Feb 2026: /events: Cancelled industry expo sponsorship PREDICTION: Interest coverage breach likely (~1.7x est.) ELEVATED COVENANT STRESS — 3-4 triggers (11 issuers): summit-manufacturing.com Score: 67 — /careers −52%, /pricing restructured northstar-media-holdings.com Score: 64 — /partners −40%, /events cancelled blueridge-retail-brands.com Score: 61 — /contact offices closed, CrUX declining [8 more issuers with detailed proxy triggers...]
3
Time-Series Covenant Deterioration Tracking
PRECISIONHEALTH-CORP.COM — 6-MONTH COVENANT PROXY TIMELINE
Sep 2025 Covenant Stress: 18/100. All proxies stable. /careers: 215 roles. 5 offices. 6 product lines. CrUX: 87. Healthy.
Oct 2025 Stress: 29/100. /careers: 215 → 178 (−17%). /events: Cancelled 1 of 3 conferences. First signals.
Nov 2025 Stress: 58/100. /careers: 178 → 34 (−81%). /sustainability removed. /blog publishing stopped. Accelerating.
Dec 2025 Stress: 74/100. /investors: Covenant waiver language added. /products: 6 → 4 lines. CrUX: 87 → 71. Critical trajectory.
Jan 2026 Stress: 85/100. /contact: 5 → 2 offices. /legal: Forbearance disclaimers. /pricing: Tier collapse. Breach imminent.
Feb 2026 Stress: 92/100. All critical proxies triggered. Digital pattern matches pre-breach companies at 96%. Action required.
4
Covenant Compliance Alert & Position Recommendation
Domain Signal
precisionhealth-corp.com — 6 of 12 covenant proxy indicators triggered in 90 days. Digital deterioration trajectory matches historical covenant breach patterns at 96% similarity. Estimated leverage: 6.3x vs 5.5x covenant. IR page confirms waiver request.
COVENANT BREACH IMMINENT — Reduce exposure before Q1 filing
Company Signal
PrecisionHealth Corp — Also operates phealth-europe.com (stable, 22/100 stress) and phealth-canada.com (moderate, 41/100 stress). US entity is epicenter. European operations may be carved out in restructuring as covenant-compliant standalone entity.
SELL $340M TLB — Bid likely 88-91 cents before disclosure

COVENANT COMPLIANCE PORTFOLIO SUMMARY

PORTFOLIO: 412 Leveraged Loan Positions — $48.2B Notional ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ COVENANT HEALTH DISTRIBUTION: Healthy (0-25): 327 positions (79.4%) ■■■■■■■■■■■■ Watch (26-50): 58 positions (14.1%) ■■■ Elevated (51-75): 16 positions (3.9%) ■■ Critical (76-100): 11 positions (2.7%) ACTIONS REQUIRED: SELL: 4 positions ($1.4B) — Breach imminent, exit before filing REDUCE: 7 positions ($2.1B) — Elevated risk, trim 30-50% WATCH: 16 positions ($4.8B) — Monthly re-scan recommended LEAD TIME ADVANTAGE: Avg detection: 47 days before covenant breach disclosure Historical accuracy: 87% true positive rate on breach prediction

5Recovery Rate Predictor

AI agent estimates recovery rates for distressed debt by analyzing the issuer's digital asset footprint — web properties, technology infrastructure, customer engagement platforms, and partner networks that represent tangible and intangible enterprise value recoverable in restructuring or liquidation.

1
Map Digital Asset Inventory for Recovery Estimation
/products /login /api /docs /partners /case-studies /about /contact PageRank CrUX Score
RECOVERY RATE MODEL — TARGET: Axion Digital Media Corp ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DOMAIN: axion-digitalmedia.com DEBT: $520M Senior Secured Notes @ 8.75% — Trading at 42 cents STATUS: Chapter 11 filing expected within 60 days DIGITAL ASSET INVENTORY — RECOVERABLE VALUE SIGNALS: HIGH-VALUE DIGITAL ASSETS: /login — Active customer portal, 48,000+ monthly logins detected Customer base value: Est. $120-180M (subscriber revenue stream) /api — RESTful API with 340+ third-party integrations Platform value: Est. $60-90M (API ecosystem is acquirable) /docs — 1,200+ pages of technical documentation (well-maintained) IP value: Est. $15-25M (proprietary content/technology) /products — 4 SaaS product lines still active, customers still using Product value: Est. $80-140M (recurring revenue attached) PageRank 64 — Strong domain authority (valuable digital real estate) Brand/domain value: Est. $5-10M MODERATE-VALUE ASSETS: /partners — 67 active integration partners (ecosystem stickiness) /case-studies — 28 published case studies (customer proof points) /about — 3 subsidiaries (separately operable units) /contact ! — 2 offices (down from 5) — leasehold value declining CrUX 61 — Degraded but still functional infrastructure IMPAIRED/ABSENT ASSETS: /careers — Zero open roles (full hiring freeze) /events — Page removed (no market presence) /sustainability — Page removed /press — No releases in 6 months (dark period) TOTAL DIGITAL ASSET VALUE ESTIMATE: $280-445M RECOVERY RATE ESTIMATE: 54-86% on $520M senior secured
2
Compare Against Historical Recovery Benchmarks
RECOVERY BENCHMARKS — DIGITAL MEDIA SECTOR COMPARABLES ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ HISTORICAL RECOVERIES WITH SIMILAR DIGITAL PROFILES: Vice Media (2023): /login: Active /api: No /products: 2 lines PageRank: 72 Digital Asset Score: 48/100 Actual Recovery: 62 cents (senior secured) BuzzFeed Digital (2024): /login: Active /api: Yes /products: 3 lines PageRank: 78 Digital Asset Score: 61/100 Actual Recovery: 71 cents (senior secured) Vox Media Restructuring (2024): /login: Active /api: Yes /products: 4 lines PageRank: 81 Digital Asset Score: 69/100 Actual Recovery: 83 cents (senior secured) AXION DIGITAL MEDIA — PROFILE COMPARISON: /login: Active /api: Yes /products: 4 lines PageRank: 64 Digital Asset Score: 63/100 CLOSEST MATCH: BuzzFeed Digital (61/100) → 71 cents recovery MODEL PREDICTION: 68 cents (range: 54-86 cents)
3
Generate Recovery-Adjusted Trading Signal
Domain Signal
axion-digitalmedia.com — Digital asset analysis reveals substantial recoverable value: active customer portal (48K logins/mo), functioning API ecosystem (340 integrations), and 4 operating SaaS products. Domain authority PageRank 64 confirms ongoing market relevance. Customer base alone valued at $120-180M.
BUY AT 42 CENTS — Model recovery: 68 cents (+62% upside)
Company Signal
Axion Digital Media Corp — 3 subsidiary domains (axion-adtech.com, axion-streaming.io, axion-analytics.com) all show active /login and /api pages. Subsidiaries are separately operable — high likelihood of piecemeal asset sale producing superior recovery vs going-concern. Strategic acquirers: Identified 6 potential bidders from /partners page analysis.
PIECEMEAL RECOVERY LIKELY HIGHER — Est. 74 cents vs 68 going-concern

RECOVERY RATE PREDICTION REPORT

ISSUER: Axion Digital Media Corp DEBT: $520M Senior Secured @ 8.75% — Market: 42 cents ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DIGITAL ASSET RECOVERY MODEL: Customer base (48K active logins): $120-180M API ecosystem (340 integrations): $60-90M SaaS products (4 active lines): $80-140M IP / Documentation (1,200 pages): $15-25M Brand / Domain (PageRank 64): $5-10M ────────────────────────────────────── Total Recoverable Assets: $280-445M Model Recovery Rate: 68 cents (54-86 range) RECOMMENDATION: BUY at 42 cents Current price implies 42% recovery — model shows 68% Upside: +62% return if recovery matches prediction Risk-adjusted expected value: 58 cents (conservative) Historical model accuracy: ±8 cents on recovery predictions CATALYST TIMELINE: Chapter 11 filing: ~60 days (triggers price discovery) Stalking horse bid: ~120 days (reveals true asset value) 363 sale or plan confirmation: ~240 days

6Credit Contagion Network

AI agent maps interconnected credit risk by analyzing shared digital infrastructure, overlapping partner networks, common technology dependencies, and supply chain linkages across the 100M+ domain database — identifying contagion pathways where one issuer's distress can cascade to connected counterparties.

1
Map Credit Contagion Network from Domain Intelligence
/partners /about /investors /products /api /docs /case-studies /security PageRank
CREDIT CONTAGION MAP — SEED: Vertex Supply Chain Solutions ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ TRIGGER: vertex-supplychain.com — Distress Score: 78/100 DEBT: $680M Senior Notes — Trading at 61 cents SECTOR: Logistics / Supply Chain Technology TIER 1 CONNECTIONS — Direct Partner/Supplier Links: (from /partners page analysis + /api integration mapping) autoflow-manufacturing.com Connection: Listed as "Platinum Partner" on Vertex /partners page Vertex mentioned on /case-studies as "core logistics provider" Revenue dependency estimate: 18-25% of Autoflow revenue Current Autoflow debt: $420M TLB @ L+350 — Trading: 96 cents CONTAGION RISK: HIGH — Revenue disruption if Vertex fails meridian-warehousing.com Connection: Shared /api endpoints, documentation cross-references Meridian /docs references "Vertex WMS integration" as critical path Revenue dependency estimate: 12-15% of Meridian revenue Current Meridian debt: $310M Revolver — Undrawn CONTAGION RISK: MODERATE — Technology dependency pacificrim-freight.com Connection: Vertex /case-studies features PacRim as top customer PacRim /partners lists Vertex as "sole logistics technology provider" Operational dependency: Critical — no alternative in place Current PacRim debt: $195M TLB @ L+400 — Trading: 94 cents CONTAGION RISK: HIGH — Operational disruption risk TIER 2 CONNECTIONS — Indirect / Shared Ecosystem: globalcarriers-alliance.com — Shared 4 partners with Vertex MODERATE techlogistics-platform.io — Competing product, may gain share BENEFICIARY supplychain-analytics.com — Vertex is data provider MODERATE [12 more Tier 2 connections identified...]
2
Monitor Contagion Propagation in Real Time
CONTAGION PROPAGATION TIMELINE — VERTEX SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS
Oct 2025 Vertex /careers drops 40%. Tier 1 partners show no impact yet. Network stress: Vertex only.
Nov 2025 Vertex distress score hits 60. autoflow-manufacturing.com /investors adds "key supplier risk" language. First propagation.
Dec 2025 pacificrim-freight.com /blog mentions "supply chain transition planning." Vertex /leadership loses COO. Contagion spreading.
Jan 2026 autoflow-manufacturing.com /careers freezes hiring. meridian-warehousing.com /docs begins removing Vertex integration references. Multi-node stress.
Feb 2026 Vertex at 78/100. Autoflow at 34/100 (up from 12). PacRim at 29/100 (up from 8). Contagion confirmed across 3 Tier 1 nodes. Network cascade active.
3
Generate Contagion-Adjusted Portfolio Risk Signals
Domain Signal
autoflow-manufacturing.com — Previously healthy (distress 12/100), now rising to 34/100 as Vertex crisis propagates. /investors page added supplier risk language. /careers frozen. Revenue dependency on Vertex estimated at 18-25%. Credit spread widening expected before market recognizes connection.
REDUCE AUTOFLOW TLB — Contagion risk mispriced at 96 cents
Sector Signal
Logistics Technology Sector — Vertex crisis creates bifurcation: 3 dependent issuers face contagion risk, while competitors (techlogistics-platform.io, supplysync-global.com) show improving /careers and /partners as they absorb displaced customers. Net sector impact: negative for 60% of credits, positive for 40%.
ROTATE — Exit Vertex-linked credits, add competitor credits

CREDIT CONTAGION NETWORK SUMMARY

CONTAGION SOURCE: Vertex Supply Chain Solutions ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ NETWORK IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Tier 1 (Direct): 3 issuers $925M combined debt HIGH RISK Tier 2 (Indirect): 12 issuers $3.4B combined debt MODERATE RISK Beneficiaries: 4 issuers $1.1B combined debt POSITIVE PORTFOLIO ACTIONS: SELL: autoflow-manufacturing TLB ($420M) — 96 → est. 82 cents SELL: pacificrim-freight TLB ($195M) — 94 → est. 79 cents HEDGE: meridian-warehousing via CDS — $310M notional BUY: techlogistics-platform bonds ($280M) — beneficiary of share gain CONTAGION DETECTION ADVANTAGE: Domain intelligence identified Tier 1 risk 38 days before credit spread movement on connected issuers. Traditional analysis missed connection entirely until Q4 filings.

7Leveraged Loan Surveillance

AI agent performs continuous surveillance across a leveraged loan portfolio by monitoring digital vitality indicators for every borrower — tracking hiring velocity, product momentum, customer engagement health, and infrastructure quality to generate real-time portfolio risk scores without waiting for quarterly financial reporting.

1
Configure Continuous Borrower Surveillance Grid
/careers /products /login /pricing /support /blog /press /events CrUX Score PageRank Distress Score
LEVERAGED LOAN SURVEILLANCE — PORTFOLIO HEALTH DASHBOARD ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ PORTFOLIO: 289 Leveraged Loan Positions | $33.7B Notional SCAN FREQUENCY: Daily (all 20 page types per borrower) PORTFOLIO VITALITY DISTRIBUTION (Feb 2026): THRIVING (Vitality 80-100): 142 borrowers (49.1%) $17.2B Avg /careers change: +14% QoQ Avg CrUX: 89 Avg /products growth: +2.3 lines/yr Avg PageRank: 71 STABLE (Vitality 60-79): 87 borrowers (30.1%) $9.8B Avg /careers change: +3% QoQ Avg CrUX: 82 Avg /products growth: +0.5 lines/yr Avg PageRank: 64 DETERIORATING (Vitality 40-59): 38 borrowers (13.1%) $4.6B Avg /careers change: −18% QoQ Avg CrUX: 71 Avg /products growth: −0.8 lines/yr Avg PageRank: 55 DISTRESSED (Vitality 0-39): 22 borrowers (7.6%) $2.1B Avg /careers change: −54% QoQ Avg CrUX: 52 Avg /products growth: −2.1 lines/yr Avg PageRank: 38 WEEK-OVER-WEEK MIGRATION: Upgraded: 8 borrowers moved to higher vitality tier Stable: 267 borrowers unchanged Downgraded: 14 borrowers moved to lower vitality tier
2
Flag Rapid Deterioration & New Entrants to Distress
WEEKLY DETERIORATION ALERTS — Feb 10-17, 2026 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ NEW ENTRANT TO DISTRESSED TIER (3 borrowers): cascadia-biotech.com — Vitality: 62 → 37 (−25 pts in 7 days) Loan: $180M TLB @ L+475 — Trading: 97 cents Feb 11: /leadership: CEO resigned (no successor named) Feb 12: /careers: 134 → 22 roles (−84% in 48 hours) Feb 14: /press: "Strategic review" announcement posted Feb 15: /support: Reduced hours from 24/7 to M-F 9-5 Feb 16: /blog: Publishing stopped. /events: Page removed. VELOCITY: Fastest deterioration in portfolio — 25 pts in 7 days heritage-hospitality-group.com — Vitality: 51 → 33 (−18 pts) Loan: $290M TLB @ L+400 — Trading: 93 cents Feb 10: /pricing: Removed premium tier (revenue compression) Feb 12: /contact: 2 of 6 regional offices removed Feb 14: /partners: Lost 4 OTA partnerships from page Feb 16: CrUX: 74 → 59 (sharp infrastructure decline) PATTERN: Gradual then sudden — classic hospitality distress arc frontline-edtech.com — Vitality: 58 → 39 (−19 pts) Loan: $145M TLB @ L+525 — Trading: 91 cents Feb 11: /investors: Delayed Q4 earnings release Feb 13: /careers: 78 → 31 roles (−60%) Feb 15: /compliance: Removed state education certifications Feb 17: /security: SSL cert expired, not renewed SECTOR: EdTech facing funding cliff — systemic pressure
3
Portfolio Risk Rebalancing Recommendations
Domain Signal
cascadia-biotech.com — CEO resignation + 84% careers collapse in 48 hours is the most aggressive deterioration pattern in the portfolio. "Strategic review" language on /press historically precedes sale or restructuring within 90 days. Current 97 cent trading level does not reflect this risk.
SELL IMMEDIATELY — Target exit at 95+ before market catches up
Company Signal
Heritage Hospitality Group — Operates 4 subsidiary domains (heritage-resorts.com, heritage-events.com, heritage-dining.com, heritage-spa.com). All 4 showing synchronized deterioration — /careers declining, /events pages emptying. Company-wide operational pullback, not isolated to one segment.
EXIT $290M TLB — Company-wide distress, not segment-specific

WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE SUMMARY — Feb 17, 2026

PORTFOLIO: 289 Leveraged Loans — $33.7B Notional ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ THIS WEEK'S ACTIONS: SELL (Immediate): cascadia-biotech TLB ($180M) — Vitality collapse, CEO exit heritage-hospitality TLB ($290M) — Multi-subsidiary distress REDUCE (Within 5 days): frontline-edtech TLB ($145M) — Sector headwind + compliance loss [3 more positions with elevated deterioration velocity] ADD (Opportunity): Peak performance borrowers with rising vitality scores: nextera-cloud.com TLB ($220M) — Vitality 67 → 84 (+17 pts) atlas-industrial.com TLB ($310M) — Vitality 72 → 81 (+9 pts) SURVEILLANCE ADVANTAGE: Weekly digital scans detect deterioration avg 6-8 weeks before quarterly financial reporting reveals problems. Portfolio turnover driven by domain intelligence: 23% of sell decisions triggered by digital signals first.

8Bankruptcy Prediction Engine

AI agent builds a multi-factor bankruptcy prediction model using domain intelligence signals as leading indicators — combining page-type decay patterns, infrastructure degradation sequences, leadership departure velocity, and historical bankruptcy digital fingerprints to generate probability-weighted bankruptcy forecasts 3-9 months ahead of filing.

1
Train Bankruptcy Prediction Model on Historical Patterns
BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODEL — TRAINING DATA & FEATURE WEIGHTS ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ TRAINING SET: 847 bankruptcy filings (2019-2025) with pre-filing domain data TOP PREDICTIVE FEATURES (ordered by importance): Feature Importance Avg Lead Time ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── /careers collapse velocity (>60% in 60d) 0.187 142 days /leadership departures without replacement 0.164 127 days /investors "going concern" language added 0.148 89 days /support page removal 0.131 108 days /legal liability disclaimer escalation 0.112 94 days /contact office count reduction >50% 0.089 118 days /pricing tier collapse or removal 0.076 103 days CrUX score decline >30 points 0.062 76 days /blog publishing cessation (>90 days) 0.043 67 days PageRank decline >15 points 0.038 58 days /compliance certification removal 0.031 71 days /security SSL expiration 0.019 34 days MODEL PERFORMANCE (backtest on 2024-2025 hold-out set): Accuracy: 91.3% | Precision: 87.6% | Recall: 83.2% False positive rate: 4.2% | Avg prediction lead: 134 days AUC-ROC: 0.94
2
Run Prediction Engine Across Credit Universe
/careers /leadership /investors /support /legal /contact /pricing /compliance /blog /security CrUX Score PageRank
BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION SCAN — 3,241 ISSUERS IN UNIVERSE ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ CRITICAL BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY >70% (5 issuers): stellarcom-networks.com — Bankruptcy Prob: 89% | Est. Filing: Apr-May 2026 /careers: 312 → 18 roles in 90 days (−94%) Feature 1: ✓ /leadership: CEO + CFO + CRO departed Nov-Jan (no replacements) Feature 2: ✓ /investors: "Going concern" + "substantial doubt" language Feature 3: ✓ /support: Removed entirely Dec 2025 Feature 4: ✓ /legal: "Material adverse change" + lender consent clauses Feature 5: ✓ /contact: 7 → 1 office (HQ only) Feature 6: ✓ /pricing: All self-serve pricing removed Feature 7: ✓ CrUX: 86 → 39 (catastrophic infrastructure collapse) Feature 8: ✓ PATTERN: 8 of 12 features triggered — matches Hertz 2020 digital fingerprint at 93% greenfield-energy-solutions.com — Bankruptcy Prob: 82% | Est. Filing: May-Jul 2026 /careers: 189 → 41 roles in 75 days (−78%) Feature 1: ✓ /leadership: CTO + COO departed, interim replacements only Feature 2: ✓ /investors: Annual report delayed + auditor change disclosed Feature 3: ✓ /legal: Arbitration clauses added across all terms Feature 5: ✓ /compliance: Removed 3 of 5 environmental certifications Feature 11: ✓ /blog: Zero posts in 120 days (previously 2/week) Feature 9: ✓ PATTERN: 6 of 12 features — matches Solyndra-type clean energy failure ELEVATED PROBABILITY 40-70% (18 issuers): allied-pharma-distribution.com Prob: 67% Est: Q3 2026 5 features rivercity-retail-holdings.com Prob: 61% Est: Q3 2026 5 features nextstep-media-group.com Prob: 54% Est: Q4 2026 4 features [15 more issuers with feature-level detail...]
3
Validate Against Financial Data & Generate Trading Signals
Domain Signal
stellarcom-networks.com — 89% bankruptcy probability with 8 of 12 model features triggered. Digital fingerprint matches Hertz 2020 pre-filing pattern at 93%. CrUX collapse from 86 to 39 indicates infrastructure is being actively shut down. Estimated filing window: April-May 2026. Current 5yr CDS at 1,200bps — model suggests 2,800bps+ fair value.
BUY CDS PROTECTION — Bankruptcy filing within 90 days
Sector Signal
Telecom Infrastructure Sector — StellarCom is one of 3 telecom issuers with bankruptcy probability >50%. Sector-wide /careers declining -22% QoQ. 5G capex overshoot creating leverage issues across mid-cap telecoms. CDX IG Telecom sub-index likely to widen 40-60bps as bankruptcies cluster.
SHORT CDX TELECOM — Sector bankruptcy cluster forming

BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION ENGINE — MONTHLY REPORT

UNIVERSE: 3,241 Issuers Scanned — February 2026 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ PREDICTION DISTRIBUTION: Probability <10%: 2,847 issuers (87.8%) Safe Probability 10-40%: 371 issuers (11.4%) Monitor Probability 40-70%: 18 issuers (0.6%) Elevated Probability >70%: 5 issuers (0.2%) Critical CRITICAL WATCHLIST (>70% probability): stellarcom-networks.com 89% ~$1.8B debt Telecom greenfield-energy-solutions 82% ~$920M debt Energy coastal-shipping-intl.com 78% ~$640M debt Shipping paramount-software-group.com 74% ~$430M debt Software heartland-agri-services.com 71% ~$380M debt Agriculture MODEL VALIDATION (rolling 12-month): Predicted bankruptcies: 34 issuers flagged >70% Actual bankruptcies: 29 filed Chapter 11/7 True positives: 27 (correctly predicted) False positives: 7 (flagged but survived) Missed bankruptcies: 2 (filed without flag) Accuracy: 93.1% | Precision: 79.4% | Recall: 93.1%

9Credit Rating Migration Detector

AI agent detects credit rating upgrades and downgrades before the rating agencies act — using domain intelligence changes that historically precede Moody's, S&P, and Fitch rating actions by weeks to months, creating a proprietary "shadow rating" system based on digital health trajectories.

1
Build Shadow Rating Model from Digital Signals
/careers /products /investors /leadership /partners /sustainability /compliance /press /case-studies CrUX Score PageRank Distress Score
SHADOW RATING MODEL — DIGITAL HEALTH → CREDIT RATING MAPPING ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ RATING MIGRATION INDICATORS (trained on 2,400 historical rating actions): UPGRADE SIGNALS (predict positive migration): /careers growth >25% QoQ sustained 2+ quarters Upgrade Correlation: 0.76 /products new lines added (expansion) Upgrade Correlation: 0.71 /partners ecosystem growth >20% YoY Upgrade Correlation: 0.68 /sustainability ESG page added or expanded Upgrade Correlation: 0.62 /case-studies count increasing (customer wins) Upgrade Correlation: 0.59 PageRank rising >10 pts over 6 months Upgrade Correlation: 0.55 DOWNGRADE SIGNALS (predict negative migration): /careers decline >30% QoQ Downgrade Correlation: 0.84 /leadership C-suite departures (2+ in 90 days) Downgrade Correlation: 0.79 /investors IR page adds negative language Downgrade Correlation: 0.77 /compliance certifications removed Downgrade Correlation: 0.72 /press release frequency drops >60% Downgrade Correlation: 0.64 CrUX score decline >20 points in 90 days Downgrade Correlation: 0.58 MODEL ACCURACY (backtest 2023-2025): Predicted direction correctly: 84.7% of rating actions Average lead time before agency action: 52 days False signal rate: 11.3%
2
Detect Rating Migration Candidates in Current Universe
SHADOW RATING DIVERGENCE SCAN — Feb 2026 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DOWNGRADE CANDIDATES — Agency rating too high (12 issuers): aegis-defense-systems.com Current Rating: Ba1/BB+ (Moody's/S&P) Shadow Rating: B1/B+ (2-notch divergence) Oct 2025: /careers: 890 → 512 roles (−42%) — defense sector hiring slowdown Nov 2025: /leadership: VP Engineering + VP Sales departed Dec 2025: /compliance: Removed 2 government security clearance certifications Jan 2026: /press: Zero releases in 60 days (previously biweekly) Feb 2026: CrUX: 84 → 66 | PageRank: 72 → 61 PREDICTION: Moody's downgrade to B1 within 45-60 days pinnacle-financial-services.com Current Rating: Baa3/BBB− (investment grade — cusp) Shadow Rating: Ba1/BB+ (fallen angel candidate) Nov 2025: /investors: Added "material weakness" language to IR disclosures Dec 2025: /careers: −31% QoQ, compliance roles eliminated Jan 2026: /partners: Removed 5 fintech partnerships Feb 2026: /sustainability: ESG report removed (cost-cutting) PREDICTION: Fallen angel — S&P downgrade to BB+ within 30-45 days IMPACT: Forced selling by IG-only mandates → spread dislocation UPGRADE CANDIDATES — Agency rating too low (8 issuers): aurora-cloud-platforms.com Current Rating: B2/B (high yield) Shadow Rating: Ba3/BB− (1-notch divergence) Q3-Q4 2025: /careers: +67% over 6 months (145 → 242 roles) Q4 2025: /products: Added 3 new product lines, /api docs expanded 2x Q1 2026: /partners: +12 new enterprise integrations listed Feb 2026: /case-studies: 8 new Fortune 500 customer wins published Feb 2026: CrUX: 91 (+8 pts) | PageRank: 58 → 72 (+14 pts) PREDICTION: Upgrade to Ba3/BB− within 60-90 days
3
Generate Rating Migration Trading Signals
Domain Signal
pinnacle-financial-services.com — Shadow rating Ba1/BB+ vs current Baa3/BBB−. This is a fallen angel candidate: investment-grade to high-yield crossover will trigger forced selling by IG-only mandates (~$2.4B estimated forced selling). /investors page "material weakness" language is the strongest single predictor of imminent downgrade (0.77 correlation).
SHORT PINNACLE BONDS — Fallen angel forced selling → spreads +150-250bps
Domain Signal
aurora-cloud-platforms.com — Shadow rating Ba3/BB− vs current B2/B. Digital trajectory is unambiguously positive: +67% hiring, 3 new products, 12 new enterprise partners, 8 Fortune 500 case studies. PageRank +14 points in 6 months. Bonds trading at B-level spreads but digital profile is solidly BB.
BUY AURORA BONDS — Rising star upgrade → spreads tighten 100-150bps

CREDIT RATING MIGRATION DETECTOR — MONTHLY REPORT

SHADOW RATING DIVERGENCES — February 2026 ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DOWNGRADE CANDIDATES (12 issuers, $18.3B debt): Fallen Angels (IG → HY): 2 issuers ($4.1B) — Highest impact Multi-notch downgrades: 4 issuers ($6.8B) — 2+ notch gap Single-notch downgrades: 6 issuers ($7.4B) — Moderate impact UPGRADE CANDIDATES (8 issuers, $9.7B debt): Rising Stars (HY → IG): 1 issuer ($1.9B) — Highest impact Multi-notch upgrades: 2 issuers ($3.2B) — Strong digital momentum Single-notch upgrades: 5 issuers ($4.6B) — Gradual improvement PORTFOLIO STRATEGY: Short fallen angel candidates (Pinnacle, Aegis) Buy rising star candidates (Aurora) Expected P&L from migration trades: +$34-52M Average lead time vs agency action: 52 days TRACK RECORD (rolling 12 months): Predicted 41 of 48 actual rating actions correctly (85.4%) Avg lead time: 52 days before agency announcement Migration trade cumulative P&L: +$187M

10Restructuring Opportunity Scanner

AI agent identifies attractive restructuring and turnaround investment opportunities by finding distressed companies whose digital assets and operational infrastructure suggest higher recovery potential than market pricing implies — targeting the "diamond in the rough" credits where web presence reveals hidden value the market has overlooked.

1
Scan for Restructuring Candidates with Hidden Digital Value
/login /api /docs /products /partners /case-studies /careers /leadership /investors /pricing /about CrUX Score PageRank
RESTRUCTURING OPPORTUNITY SCAN — CRITERIA: DISTRESSED + HIGH ASSET VALUE ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ FILTER: Distress Score >60 AND Digital Asset Score >55 AND Debt Trading <70 cents UNIVERSE: 3,241 issuers → 14 candidates identified TOP RESTRUCTURING OPPORTUNITIES: quantumleap-analytics.com Distress Score: 72/100 | Digital Asset Score: 78/100 | Gap: +6 (undervalued) Debt: $380M Senior Secured — Trading at 38 cents WHY DISTRESSED: /careers: −68% (128 → 41 roles) /leadership: CFO departed, CEO is interim /investors: Missed interest payment, forbearance in place /contact: 4 → 1 offices WHY VALUABLE (hidden assets): /login: 127,000 monthly active users still engaged /api: Enterprise API with 89 integrations (sticky ecosystem) /docs: 2,400 pages of proprietary ML documentation /products: 3 SaaS products still operating with paying customers /case-studies: 34 enterprise customers including 6 Fortune 100 PageRank: 71 (strong authority despite financial distress) CrUX: 83 (infrastructure well-maintained despite layoffs) VALUE THESIS: Financial distress from over-leverage, NOT operational failure MARKET PRICE: 38 cents → MODEL RECOVERY: 72-85 cents elemental-healthtech.com Distress Score: 67/100 | Digital Asset Score: 71/100 | Gap: +4 (undervalued) Debt: $245M 2nd Lien — Trading at 29 cents WHY DISTRESSED: /careers: −55% | /leadership: CTO + CMO departed /pricing: Removed enterprise tier | /press: Silent 90 days WHY VALUABLE: /login: 84,000 active healthcare provider logins /compliance: HIPAA + SOC 2 + HITRUST certifications intact /security: Full security posture maintained /partners: 23 hospital system integrations active /docs: FDA-cleared documentation for 2 medical devices VALUE THESIS: Regulatory moat intact — compliance assets are rare MARKET PRICE: 29 cents → MODEL RECOVERY: 55-70 cents
2
Deep-Dive Digital Asset Valuation for Top Candidate
QUANTUMLEAP-ANALYTICS.COM — DIGITAL ASSET TRAJECTORY
Aug 2025 Pre-crisis: 128 roles, 4 offices, 127K MAU, 89 API integrations, CrUX 87, PageRank 73. Fully healthy digital profile. Peak operations.
Oct 2025 CFO departs. /careers: 128 → 89. /investors adds "liquidity concerns." Financial stress begins. Financial signals only.
Dec 2025 Missed interest payment. /careers: 89 → 52. /contact: 4 → 2 offices. BUT /login MAU stable at 124K. /api integrations unchanged. Operations intact.
Jan 2026 Forbearance agreement. /careers: 52 → 41. /contact: 2 → 1 office. /login: 125K MAU (growing). /products: All 3 lines active. CrUX: 83 (still strong). Financial distress ≠ operational failure.
Feb 2026 Restructuring advisors hired (per /press). /login: 127K MAU. /api: 89 integrations. /case-studies: Added 2 new ones. Operations growing despite balance sheet distress. Classic overleveraged good company.
3
Identify Strategic Acquirers from Partner Network
POTENTIAL ACQUIRER ANALYSIS — QUANTUMLEAP ANALYTICS ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ SOURCE: /partners page, /api integration references, /case-studies mentions STRATEGIC ACQUIRERS (identified from digital footprint overlap): datacore-enterprise.com — Digital Health: 92/100 /partners: Lists QuantumLeap as "Premier Analytics Partner" /api: 12 shared integration endpoints with QuantumLeap /careers: Actively hiring "ML Engineers" + "Data Scientists" (+34%) FIT SCORE: 94/100 — Acquiring QL fills product gap + adds 127K users cloudscale-intelligence.com — Digital Health: 88/100 /case-studies: 3 shared enterprise customers with QuantumLeap /products: Competing analytics product but lacks ML capabilities /press: Recently announced "$500M acquisition war chest" FIT SCORE: 87/100 — Product consolidation play + IP acquisition atlas-data-systems.com — Digital Health: 85/100 /partners: QuantumLeap API is embedded in Atlas core product /docs: Extensive QL integration documentation (deep dependency) /about: Recently raised Series E ($340M) FIT SCORE: 82/100 — Vertical integration of critical dependency STALKING HORSE BID ESTIMATE: $270-350M (based on comparable M&A) IMPLIES RECOVERY: 71-92 cents on $380M senior secured
4
Restructuring Investment Recommendation
Domain Signal
quantumleap-analytics.com — Classic over-leveraged good company: digital assets (127K MAU, 89 API integrations, 3 active products, PageRank 71) are growing while balance sheet is in distress. Financial restructuring will unlock $270-350M of enterprise value that current 38-cent trading level completely ignores. 3 identified strategic acquirers with strong digital fit scores.
BUY AT 38 CENTS — Target 72-85 cent recovery (+89-124% return)
Company Signal
QuantumLeap Analytics Inc — Also operates ql-europe.com (stable, 42K MAU) and ql-apac.io (growing, 28K MAU). All 3 domains show healthy /login, /api, and /products pages. Total platform reaches 197K MAU across 3 geographies. Geographic diversification supports higher recovery in asset sale scenario. Combined platform value: $350-450M.
CONTROL POSITION — Accumulate to $50M+ for restructuring influence

RESTRUCTURING OPPORTUNITY PORTFOLIO

RESTRUCTURING CANDIDATES — February 2026 Scan ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════ TOP 5 OPPORTUNITIES (ranked by value gap): Market Model Potential Issuer Price Recovery Return ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── QuantumLeap Analytics 38¢ 78¢ +105% Elemental HealthTech 29¢ 62¢ +114% Velocity SaaS Corp 44¢ 71¢ +61% Bridgeport Industrial 51¢ 74¢ +45% Apex Media Networks 33¢ 56¢ +70% PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: Total capital deployed: $175M across 5 positions Weighted avg entry: 39 cents Weighted avg model recovery: 68 cents Expected portfolio return: +74% ($130M gross P&L) Avg time to realization: 8-14 months KEY INSIGHT: Domain intelligence distinguishes "overleveraged good companies" from "operationally failing companies" — a distinction the bond market frequently misses. Active /login, healthy /api ecosystems, and maintained /compliance pages signal recoverable enterprise value that pure financial analysis cannot detect.
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